Unit 8: Conceptual Models for Continuous Improvement
2. 8.2 Known and Unknown Risks
The Risk-Assessment Coin, which was developed in the context of this research (see Figure 2), provides a double-sided approach to managing risk.
Figure 2 – Known vs Unknowns
In contrast, human experience emphasizes the importance of risk management that may be measured using present-day understanding and experience. It operates under the concept that "if it can go wrong, it will." As such, this calls for the establishment of thorough plans and procedures to integrate human factors considerations, with the aim of reducing errors and mitigating anticipated risks.
The second mode, identified as Unknown, involves risks not identified because of a lack of adequate information base. Such uncertainties represent the kind of situation where thorough preparation and formulated procedure do not prevent accidents. Conventional risk assessment approaches are invalidated in such situations, and external learning, as well as dedication to continuous education, comes into the picture, focusing on the enterprising correction of errors. 'Error' under this mode is defined as a lack of correspondence between outcomes and intended safety controls.
Alongside the Risk-Assessment Coin, this research introduces the Fitness (for purpose) Triangle (see Figure 3). The intended approach assures constant coherence between these three key elements:
Jobs: Clearly defined roles and responsibilities tailored to operational needs.
People: Continuous development of skills and competencies.
Plans and Procedures: Adaptive safety measures that evolve alongside industry advancements.
Figure 3 – Fitness Triangle
The Triangle emphasizes the need for constant improvement and adjustments, which ensures safety protocols are in place and responsive to identified as well as unknown threats. The process of improvement in this cycle aligns with the recognition of" we know what we do know" and "we do not know what we do not know," thus establishing the need for systems that can forecast and adapt to emerging challenges [4].